NEW YORK -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in April, following a 1.3 percent gain in March, and a 0.4 percent rise in February.
This was the first decline for the index since March 2009. The leading economic index rose 4.4 percent (about a 9.0 percent annual rate) between October 2009 and April 2010, moderately slower than the increase of 5.5 percent (about an 11.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
According to Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board, these latest results suggest a recovery that will continue through the summer, although it could lose a little steam.
Four of the 10 indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in April. The positive contributors beginning with the largest positive contributor were: the interest rate spread, stock prices, average weekly manufacturing hours and manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods.
The negative contributors beginning with the largest negative contributor were: building permits, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), real money supply, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), the index of consumer expectations, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.